The center-right four party coalition – ”the Alliance” – ruled Sweden from 2006 to 2014 and has since then acted as a very weak but formally united opposition.
Analyzing the election result, the Alliance is bigger than the previous government, but one mandate smaller than the entire left block, which would include the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Party.
The unity of the Alliance has been one of the dogmas of Swedish politics and dates back to the government of Carl Bildt in 1991-1994. Now it may be pulling itself apart.
The Liberals and the Center Party (which also has a decidedly liberal orientation) seek support from the Social Democrats for the formation of a new government, which is a mission impossible. In contrast, The Moderate Party and the Christian Democrats want to rule with support from the Sweden Democrats, which is unthinkable for the Liberals and the Center Party. Furthermore, the Sweden Democrats will not provide active support without political influence, which has been turned down by all Alliance members.
At this moment the situation is not clear, but a rupture of the Alliance cannot be excluded, which would completely redraw the Swedish political map.
I may be wrong, but if this would happen, a new coalition between the Social Democrats, the Center Party and the Liberal Party cannot be ruled out, something that I discussed in Samtiden in 2017. However, that coalition would need active support from the Green Party to become larger than the combination Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats.